My Pick Results

Carolina + 1.5 @ Tampa Bay, 1:00pm (Right)
I said: Take the Bucs. Final Score: Tampa Bay 27- Carolina 3

St. Louis +13 @ Washington, 1:00pm (Right)
I said: Take St. Louis. Final Score: St. Louis 19 - Washington 17

Cincinnati +9 @ New York J, 1:00pm (Right)
I said: Take New York. Final Score: New York 26 - Cincinnati - 14

Oakland +7 @ New Orleans, 1:00pm (Right)
I said: Take New Orleans. Final Score: New Orleans 34 - Oakland 3

Miami +3 @ Houston, 1:00pm (Wrong)
I said: Take Houston. Final Score: Houston 29 - Miami 28

Baltimore +4 @ Indianapolis, 1:00pm (Wrong)
I said: Take the Ravens. Final Score: Indianapolis 31 - Baltimore 3

Jacksonville +3 @ Denver, 4:05pm (Wrong)
I said: Take Denver. Final Score: Jacksonville 24, Denver 17

Philadelphia -4.5 @ San Francisco, 4:15pm (Right)
I said: take Philadelphia. Final Score: Philadelphia 40, San Francsico 26

Dallas -4.5 @ Arizona, 4:15pm (Wrong)
I said: Take Dallas. Final Score: Arizona 30 - Dallas 24

Green Bay +1 @ Seattle, 4:15pm (Right)
I said: Take Green Bay. Final Score: Green Bay 27 - Seattle 17

New England +4.5 @ San Diego, 8:15pm (Right)
I said: go with the Chargers. Final Score: San Diego 30 - New England 10

New York G -7.5 @ Cleveland, 8:30pm Monday (Right)
I said: Look for Cleveland. Final Score: Cleveland 35 - New York 14

Mise-Au-Jeu Picks
1. New York J -9 over Cincinnati (Right)
2. Philadelphia -4.5 over San Francisco (Right)
3. Denver -3 over Jacksonville (Wrong)
4. Houston -3 over Miami (Wrong)
5. New Orleans -7 over Oakland (Right)
6. St. Louis +13 over Washington (Right)

Weekly Record: (8-4)
Mise-Au-Jeu Record (4-2)

Picking Apart The Spreads

Told you I'd update more often. I figure I spend most saturday afternoons at home, doing work or whatever, so I can spend a few minutes every Saturday picking apart the NFL spreads, analyzing who I think will cover it. For the purpose of these picks, I'll be using an average of the five gambling sites Yahoo! Sports odds uses.

A quick analysis of spreads, for those of you who are noobs. When a team is favored by 6, they are listed as "-6", whereas the underdog would be "+6," so in the below game, Tamap Bay is projected to beat Carolina by 1.5 points. How is that possible? It's not, teams can't score half-points, but spreads are generally set with fractional points so no tie can be argued. (If the spread is -4, and the favorite wins by 4, no one wins or loses money.)

So here they are (all games on Sunday unless otherwise noted):

Carolina + 1.5 @ Tampa Bay, 1:00pm
The Panthers are coming off a week 5 thrashing against the lowly Chiefs (34-0,) while the Bucs lost a heartbreaker at home. Look for the Bucs to catch the Panthers sleeping and win this game. With spreads as low as these, if you win the game, you usually beat the spread. Take the Bucs.

St. Louis +13 @ Washington, 1:00pm
I'm not even going to get into why and how the Rams are so bad, because they're not. Granted, the Rams are 0-4 while the Redskins are a surprising 4-1, it looks like this game should be a Redskins blowout. But the Rams do still have their pride. With Marc Bulger back at QB and Steven Jackson ready to get back to his old self, look for the Redskins to take the game, but the Rams to keep it close. Take St. Louis.

Cincinnati +9 @ New York J, 1:00pm
The spread opened at something like 5.5, but with news that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be replacing Bengals QB Carson Palmer, it blew up. Look for the Bretts to blow away the Bengals in what will be enjoyable only for fans of the Jets (and Brett Favre fantasy owners.) Take New York.

Oakland +7 @ New Orleans, 1:00pm
Both of these teams are pretty bad, but in a close loss to Minnesota last Monday, the Saints proved their not as bad as people say they are. At least their better than the Raiders, so while this game might not be a Saints blowout, the Raiders are a lot worse than they've played this year. Take New Orleans.

Miami +3 @ Houston, 1:00pm
The Texans will avenge their loss to the Colts last week, and be the first team this season to stop the Dolphins wing formation. Take Houston.

Baltimore +4 @ Indianapolis, 1:00pm
I'm not just saying this because I'm a Texans fan, but the Colts are on the decline while the Ravens are rising. Should be a close game, so Take the Ravens.

Jacksonville +3 @ Denver, 4:05pm
The Broncos faced a tough defense last week against Tampa Bay, but look for them to step up their passing game against the Jags secondary. Who needs Scheffler, Young, and Royal? Take Denver.

Philadelphia -4.5 @ San Francisco, 4:15pm
The only reason the spread is so low is because the game is in San Francisco. I know the favourites aren't going to win every game this week, but in this game, you should definitely take Philadelphia.

Dallas -4.5 @ Arizona, 4:15pm
The Cards have a good passing attack, and Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald will light them up. The problem? The Cowboys have Tony Romo and Terrell Owens. Take Dallas.

Green Bay +1 @ Seattle, 4:15pm
This could go down as the game of the week. Both teams are desperate for a win, but the Packers are more desperate. Take Green Bay.

New England +4.5 @ San Diego, 8:15pm
I don't really want to pick this game, it seems too close, but I'll go with the Chargers, who need this game so Denver doesn't leap too far ahead in the race for the AFC West.

New York G -7.5 @ Cleveland, 8:30pm Monday
The Browns seem to be sinking this year, and could really use this win in the national spotlight against the Super Bowl champs. Look for Cleveland to keep it close.

With my weekly picks, I'm gonna do a new feature called "Mise Picks," which feature suggestions for those people who by Mise-Au-Jeu lottery tickets. To win a Mise-Au-Jeu, you pick a certain amount of times to cover the spread, and then lay down some money, from $2-$100. If you take three teams (the minimum,) you could win five times your bet. Four teams? Eight times your bet. Five teams? Twelve times your bet. And the maximum six teams? 25 times your bet. unfortunately, if just one of the teams you pick doesn't cover, you lose everything.

So here are the six teams most likely to cover, for you Mise-Au-Jeu fanatics:

Mise-Au-Jeu Picks
1. New York J -9 over Cincinnati
2. Philadelphia -4.5 over San Francisco
3. Denver -3 over Jacksonville
4. Houston -3 over Miami
5. New Orleans -7 over Oakland
6. St. Louis +13 over Washington

Who Takes Over The AFC?

Only 7:22 into the Patriots season-opener against the Chiefs, and the entire NFL season was sent into a spiral of questioning. As Tom Brady went down clutching his knee, fans nationwide started wondering; was that it? Did the Patriots just lose the league’s reigning MVP, and along with him, their playoff hopes?

Yes and most unfortunately, yes. With Tom Brady officially on injured reserve, the Patriots’ playoffs chances hinged on the inexperienced Matt Cassell. Tom Brady actually took over the Patriots, back in 2001, under similar circumstances, following a Drew Bledsoe injury. But Bledsoe was no Brady, and neither is Cassell. Brady started 22 games at the University of Michigan. Cassell? He spent four years backing up Heisman winners Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart.

So who becomes the AFC favourite now? Many people are saying the perennial underachievers, the San Diego Chargers, but with Shawne Merriman sidelined for the season, their chances seem grim.

Some other “experts” say the Jets instantly become not only the favourites to win their division, but the entire AFC. Apparently these experts forgot that the Jets went 4-12 last year, and even though they added Brett Favre, they still have too many holes to be Super Bowl contenders. Division maybe. Conference? Not a chance.

So who wins the conference? The Steelers. The Steelers have an explosive offence, with underrated Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback, “Fast” Willie Parker at running back, and two stars at receiver, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes.

Not only do they have a great offence, which they didn’t when they won the Super Bowl back in 2006, but their defense is dominant. I know this from experience, as I watched the Steelers rip apart my beloved Texans in week one.

Do The Texans Still Have A Shot?

For some reason I love to start my blog posts with semi-rhetorical questions, only to spend the entire post answering that exact question. So I will. And even after a 38-17 manhandling at the hands of the Pittsburgh Steelers, I, a usually pessimistic person, remain extremely optimistic.

Why?

The 2007 Cleveland Browns. The Browns lost, 35-7, at home, to the Browns week 1 of last year. They ended up finishing 10-6 and a tiebreaker away from a playoff spot. Can the Texans replicate that? It's possible. Allow me to make the comparison, player to player;

QB: Browns - Derek Anderson, Texans - Matt Schaub
Anderson came out of nowhere to throw for nearly 4000 yards to go with his 29 touchdowns. Matt Schaub is also an underrated, unknown QB that could do the same, even with his less-than-stellar performance this week.

HB: Browns - Jamal Lewis, Texans - Steve Slaton
The two players couldn't be more different. Lewis is a bruiser, Slaton is the shifty, elusive, Westbrook type. But the Browns signed Lewis at the beginning of last season and ended up with over 1500 total yards and 11 total touchdowns. With the Texans zone-blocking scheme perfect for Slaton, give him a couple more reps to get used to the Texans playbook and we can expect big things form the former Mountaineer.

WR: Browns - Braylon Edwards, Texans - Andre Johnson
Both receivers have been absolutely dominant so far in their young careers. Edwards was drafted third overall in 2005, Johnson went third in 2003. Last season, Edwards broke out with 1289 yards and 16 touchdowns. Many compare the two, both huge receivers with speed. Johnson got injured early last year, but returned mid-season to finish with 851 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Providing he stays healthy, can he have a similar season to Edwards last year? He had 10 catches for 112 yards this week against a tough defense. So it looks like it

TE: Browns - Kellen Winslow, Texans - Owen Daniels
I'm not gonna come out and say Daniels can top Winslow's 1106 yards and five touchdowns, but when a QB needs a security blanket, he has his tight end there for him. Daniels could have an 800-yard, 5 touchdown type season, which is good enough for me.

LT: Browns - Joe Thomas, Texans - Duane Brown
Thomas was far and away the best offensive lineman in the 2007 draft. If I remember correctly, Brown was the 7th tackle taken this year. Regardless, both were young, thrust into starting roles as rookies, and performed admirably, with Thomas making the Pro Bowl. Will Brown make the Pro Bowl? I doubt it, but he's huge and has potential, and it looks like the Texans have finally found their left tackle.

Defense:
I'm not even gonna get into this too much. I know the Texans have a week secondary, and though they got torched on the run this week, with young stars like Mario Williams, Amobi Okoye (one of the youngest players in the league, even though he's a second year pro,) and Pro Bowler and former Defensive ROY Demeco Ryans anchoring their defense, the Texans should be fine.